Comments on a couple of PLO hands

Here's a couple for Skillz. In the second hand I lost to runner runner
quads after flopping a set. This is why I only play with 10% or less of my
bankroll on a table. Notice the time stamps as I was multi-tabling.

PokerStars Game #25030611485: Omaha Pot Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2009/02/16
22:23:32 ET
Table 'Aralia X' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: JJLZ007 ($9.65 in chips)
Seat 2: MrBookworm ($4.80 in chips)
Seat 3: killaherni ($22.30 in chips)
Seat 4: kayalt75 ($5.05 in chips)
Seat 5: Papaw Shorty ($18 in chips)
Seat 6: papasmurfer ($3.95 in chips)
MrBookworm: posts small blind $0.05
killaherni: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrBookworm [7c Kc Kd 2d]
kayalt75: calls $0.10
Papaw Shorty: calls $0.10
JJLZ007 said, "nh"
papasmurfer: calls $0.10
JJLZ007: calls $0.10
MrBookworm: calls $0.05
killaherni: checks
*** FLOP *** [4h 4s Ts]
MrBookworm: checks
killaherni: checks
kayalt75: checks
Papaw Shorty: checks
papasmurfer: checks
JJLZ007: checks
*** TURN *** [4h 4s Ts] [Kh]
MrBookworm: bets $0.60
killaherni: folds
kayalt75: calls $0.60
Papaw Shorty: folds
papasmurfer: calls $0.60
JJLZ007: folds
*** RIVER *** [4h 4s Ts Kh] [Jd]
MrBookworm: bets $2.30
kayalt75: raises $2.05 to $4.35 and is all-in
papasmurfer: folds
MrBookworm: calls $1.80 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($0.25) returned to kayalt75
*** SHOW DOWN ***
kayalt75: shows [4d 4c Js Td] (four of a kind, Fours)
MrBookworm: mucks hand
kayalt75 collected $10.10 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $10.60 | Rake $0.50
Board [4h 4s Ts Kh Jd]
Seat 1: JJLZ007 (button) folded on the Turn
Seat 2: MrBookworm (small blind) mucked [7c Kc Kd 2d]
Seat 3: killaherni (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 4: kayalt75 showed [4d 4c Js Td] and won ($10.10) with four of a
kind, Fours
Seat 5: Papaw Shorty folded on the Turn
Seat 6: papasmurfer folded on the River

PokerStars Game #25030596913: Omaha Pot Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2009/02/16
22:23:01 ET
Table 'Pavo V' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: MrBookworm ($12.25 in chips)
Seat 2: mosl3m ($39.45 in chips)
Seat 3: ooheynow ($9.85 in chips)
Seat 4: Bleke0 ($39.10 in chips)
Seat 5: taylorweb ($25.75 in chips)
Seat 6: Randy1184 ($9.85 in chips)
taylorweb: posts small blind $0.05
Randy1184: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrBookworm [9d Kh 6s Kd]
MrBookworm: raises $0.20 to $0.30
mosl3m: raises $0.75 to $1.05
ooheynow: folds
Bleke0: raises $2.55 to $3.60
taylorweb: folds
Randy1184: folds
MrBookworm: calls $3.30
mosl3m: raises $10.95 to $14.55
Bleke0: calls $10.95
MrBookworm: calls $8.65 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [Kc 5h 4c]
mosl3m: bets $24.90 and is all-in
Bleke0: calls $24.55 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($0.35) returned to mosl3m
*** TURN *** [Kc 5h 4c] [7d]
*** RIVER *** [Kc 5h 4c 7d] [7s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mosl3m: shows [Ad Ts Ah 3h] (two pair, Aces and Sevens)
Bleke0: shows [3d 7h 4d 7c] (four of a kind, Sevens)
Bleke0 collected $52.50 from side pot
MrBookworm: mucks hand
Bleke0 collected $35.10 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $90.60 Main pot $35.10. Side pot $52.50. | Rake $3
Board [Kc 5h 4c 7d 7s]
Seat 1: MrBookworm mucked [9d Kh 6s Kd]
Seat 2: mosl3m showed [Ad Ts Ah 3h] and lost with two pair, Aces and Sevens
Seat 3: ooheynow folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Bleke0 (button) showed [3d 7h 4d 7c] and won ($87.60) with four of
a kind, Sevens
Seat 5: taylorweb (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Randy1184 (big blind) folded before Flop


On Feb 18 2009 1:08 PM, MrBookworm wrote:

> > 2nd hand you had no business being in, but you knew that already .....
>
> Yes, if I hadn't been paying attention to the players on previous hands.
> That's normally an easy fold with semi-logical players.
>


No.

It's an easy fold by a semi-logical player.

In the first hand after getting called twice on the turn you have to
seriously ask yourself what hands they might have and think hard about a
check/call on the river.

When EV doesn't work

Most of the time people think that expected value is the basis for all poker decisions. But that's just a misconception.

Not all expected values are alike.

Expected value is the sum of the product x*p(x) where x is the value of a state of nature and p(x) is the probability of that state of nature. It's useful to think of this as a payoff function and a probability distribution.

Whether or not expected value is a useful metric depends on the complexity characteristics of the payoff function and the probability distribution.

Think of the characteristics of the payoff function and probability distribution as lying in a four quadrant matrix -- simple payoff function with simple probability distribution, simple payoff and complex probability, complex payoff and simple probability and complex payoff with complex probability.

If you're in a situation in that fourth quadrent -- complexkity in both the payoff function and the probability distribution then you're in a world where you aren't likely to come up with good outcomes resulting from investing much into estimating expected values -- the complexities will combine in a way that makes your estimates highly unreliable.

An example of a payoff function simplicity or complexity is when you're drawing to a flush and trying to estimate whether your opponent will call a bet if your flush comes in (implied odds). Probability distribution complexity comes in to play when you need to estimate whether the flush will be any good if it makes (drawing to a K high flush, for example).

Usually the best thing to do when you're in that fourth quadrant is to just give it up early, don't play the hand.